Classification

When response variable is qualitative or categorical, we perform classification.

Classification could be simply predicting the class of observations:

\[f(x) \in \{C_1, C_2, \ldots, C_K\}\]

But more profoundly, it would about estimating the conditional probability that an observation belongs to a certain class.

Classification VS Clustering

The difference between classification and clustering is that clustering is essentially unsupervised learning.

Unlike classification, there is no predefined notion of classes or labels for the observations during clustering.

Table of contents
  1. Bayes Classifier
  2. Decision Boundary
  3. Why Not Regular Linear Regression?
    1. Masking Phenomenon
  4. Misclassification Rate
  5. Logistic Regression
  6. Discriminant Analysis
  7. Threshold
  8. ROC Curve

Bayes Classifier

Bayes classifier or Bayes optimal classifier assigns an observation to the class that maximizes the posterior probability:

$$ k^\ast = \arg\max_k P(Y = k \mid X = x) $$

Given an observation, what is the probability that it belongs to class $k$? If it’s high, then it must belong to that class $k$.

This is a natural and rational way to formulate classification, and we rarely know the true posterior probabilities.

Hence the name “optimal”.


Decision Boundary

Decision boundary is the surface that separates the classes.

Decision boundary between two classes $i$ and $j$ is the set of points $\boldsymbol{x}$ where the posterior probabilities are equal.

For linear classifiers, we would have learned a set of weights/parameters $\hat{\beta}_i$ and $\hat{\beta}_j$ that determine the probability of $\boldsymbol{x}$ belonging to class $i$ and $j$.

Then our decision boundary would be the set of coordinates $\boldsymbol{x} \in \mathbb{R}^p$ such that:

$$ \hat{\beta}_{i0} + \hat{\beta}_i^\top \boldsymbol{x} = \hat{\beta}_{j0} + \hat{\beta}_j^\top \boldsymbol{x} \iff \hat{\beta}_{i0} - \hat{\beta}_{j0} + (\hat{\beta}_i - \hat{\beta}_j)^\top \boldsymbol{x} = 0 $$

For clarity we denote the intercept term separately from the weights here.

Affine Subspace \[\overbrace{\hat{\beta}_{i0} - \hat{\beta}_{j0}}^a + (\underbrace{\hat{\beta}_i - \hat{\beta}_j}_\boldsymbol{b})^\top \boldsymbol{x} = 0\]

The decision boundary,

\[\{\boldsymbol{x} \in \mathbb{R}^p \mid a + \boldsymbol{b}^\top \boldsymbol{x} = 0\}\]

Defines a $(p-1)$-dimensional affine subspace in $\mathbb{R}^p$.

Remeber that a one-dimensional affine subspace is a line, and a two-dimensional affine subspace is a plane.

For $K$ classes, there would be a total

\[{K \choose 2} = \frac{K(K-1)}{2}\]

decision boundaries.


Why Not Regular Linear Regression?

In the case of binary classification with label $\{0, 1\}$, our regression function

\[f(x) = \E[Y \mid X = x]\]

Conveniently becomes the conditional probability:

\[P(Y = 1 \mid X = x)\]

Which is what we want for classification.

However, the prediction from linear regression is:

  • Hard to interpret as probability: There is no way to bind the prediction to $[0, 1]$.
  • Hard to define a threshold or cutoff for classification
  • Doomed for multi-class classification
  • Mapping qualitative variables to a sequence of numerical labels i.e. $\{1, 2, 3\}$ introduces a sense of order and distance between the classes, when there is none.

Masking Phenomenon

Take a look at the third bullet point above. One of the reasons why linear regression is doomed for multi-class classification is masking.

Masking is a phenomenon where the decision boundary collapses for multi-class classification.

Masking Effect

The effect is that some classes are “masked” by others, and an observation is never assigned to the masked class.

This phenomenon becomes more severe as the number of classes increases.


Misclassification Rate

Unlike regression, where we use MSE to measure performance, in classification we use misclassification rate or error rate.

It is simply the proportion of misclassified observations:

$$ \text{Error rate} = \sum_{i=1}^n \frac{I(y_i \neq \hat{y}_i)}{n} $$


Logistic Regression

See here


Discriminant Analysis

See here


Threshold

In the context of binary classification, selecting class $k$ with the highest $p_k(x)$ is equivalent to setting a threshold, say $0.5$, and asking the question:

\[P(Y = 1 \mid X = x) > 0.5\]

If yes, then $Y = 1$.

Different thresholds would lead to different misclassification rates, which is our measure of performance in classification.

So we need to find the optimal threshold as well.


ROC Curve

See here